Flexible planning of the investment mix in a forest fire management system: spatially-explicit intra-annual optimization, considering prevention, pre-suppression, suppression, and escape costs

Abstract

We model intra-annual management as a multistage capacity investment problem, considering a portfolio of resources enabling fuel treatment and fire suppression, and having fires as the demand. The solutions are spatially explicit and our Mixed Integer Programming model considers two types of flexibility: capacity commitment postponement (prevention, pre-suppression, and suppression) and spatial flexibility (ground crews and aerial resources). The results confirm that higher volatilities in weather conditions lead to commitment postponement, and we have found that the prevention/suppression balance changes qualitatively according to the burnt hectare value. The changes in the investment mix correspond to real world behaviors and challenge several myths. We have also found that above a certain threshold for the burnt hectare value, fuel treatments are always needed.